Anthony Garratt

CV

Research Interests

• Macroeconomics/Macroeconometrics
• Exchange Rates
• Model Uncertainty
• Real Time Data

Recent Book

• Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach, Oxford University Press 2006 (joint with K. Lee, M. H. Pesaran and Y. Shin). Link to Amazon

           Gauss Programs and Data for GLPS Book

Recent Papers

• "Real Time Representations of the Output Gap" (with Kevin Lee, Emi Mise and Kalvinder Shields). Forthcoming Review of Economics and Statistics
• "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics" (with Shaun Vahey). Economic Journal February 2006
• "Permanent vs. Transitory Components and Economic Fundamentals" (with Donald Robertson and Stephen Wright). Journal of Applied Econometrics May-June 2006
• "Forecasting Real-Time Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty" (with Gary Koop and Shaun Vahey). Forthcoming Economic Journal
• "Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan" (with Kevin Lee). June 2007
• "Real-Time Representations of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Model Uncertainty" (with Kevin Lee, Emi Mise and Kalvinder Shields). April 2007.
• "Real-Time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty" (with Gary Koop, Emi Mise and Shaun Vahey). July 2007.

Selected Publications

• "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Applications and Case Studies, 2003, 98, 468, 829-838 (with K. Lee, M. H. Pesaran and Y. Shin).
• "A Long-Run Structural Macroeconometric Model of the UK Economy," Economic Journal, 2003, 113, no. 487, 412-455 (with K. Lee, M. H. Pesaran and Y. Shin).
• "An Empirical Reassessment of Target-Zone Non-linearities," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001, 20, 533-548 (with M. Sola and Z. Psaradakis).
• "Exchange Rates and Prices: Sources of Sterling Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1973-1994," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2000, 62, 4, 491-509 (with M. Astley).
• "E-Equilibria and Adaptive Expectations: Output and Inflation in the LBS Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1997, 21, 1149-1171 (with S.G.H. Hall).

Teaching

• Quantitative Techniques (BSc Financial Economics)
• Principles of Finance (BSc. Financial Economics)